The mythology of the tidal wave of immigration overwhelming California and its institutions is rampant in all forms of media and colors all debates about public policy. But, what are the real facts? Perhaps unvarnished census data can inform us?
Last week, I attended a conference in Santa Barbara where the keynote speaker was demographer Dowell Myers. Dr. Myers is a professor at USC and holds a Ph.D. in urban and regional planning from MIT and directs the USC Population Dynamics Research Group. What did Dr. Myers say census data shows us on the topic?
1. The white population in California has not declined in California and has held steady at 15 million.
2. The U.S. immigration rate has actually declined since 1990 and in California it has declined nearly 10%. This is due to the steady decline in population in Mexico where the birth rate has declined from 6.8 births to 2.4 births since 1960.
3. Immigrants in California assimilate, are upwardly mobile, and are long settled in California. The average immigrant has lived in California for 20 years and 51% of Latinos are homeowners vs. 56% of all Californians.
4. The majority of Californians are born in California.
5. California is 5th in the nation in population remaining in the state at 65%. Native Californians are not leaving in droves.
According to Dowell, what these statistics tell us is that there will not be further immigration and migration into California. The future will be determined by our own homegrown population. He said that, “we need to rediscover our minority youth.” Why? We need young workers to be highly educated and skilled to replace the tidal wave of baby boomers who will be leaving the workforce to be replaced by a smaller pool of workers. We need to treat these youth as a critical asset and invest in these workers’ education now! “Education grows future taxpayers, workers, and homebuyers and produces a 2/3 to 1 return on investment.” Just think of it this way. Who will be earning enough 10-15 years from now to buy your house when you retire?
Dean Palius
CEO, People Helping People
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